AN ECONOMIC AND ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS AFFECTING IRAQ'S FOREIGN TRADE OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES (WHEAT, RICE AND DATES, AN APPLIED MODEL) FOR THE PERIOD (1990-2020)

Wheat, rice and dates are considered essential strategic commodities for the Iraqi people, as they have become indispensable for the Iraqi individual, and these crops also have an important role in the foreign trade of countries. In this research, the factors affecting the foreign trade of wheat, rice and dates in Iraq for the period of time have been studied. (1990-2020), The wheat and rice imports function was adopted in the economic and econometric analysis, while the wheat and rice exports were analyzed by the descriptive method due to the presence of many gaps in the time series data under study. The dates exports function was adopted in the economic and econometric analysis. While the imports of dates were analyzed by the descriptive method, as Iraq began to import small quantities of canned dates used in the food industry in the last years of the study, and Iraq did not import any dates in previous years, as this matter was prohibited because Iraq has a comparative advantage in its production. The imported quantities of wheat and rice are the dependent factor (Y),The independent factors were represented by (gross agricultural output, world price, domestic price, exchange rate, national income, population, and average per capita national income), while the exported quantities of dates were considered the dependent factor (Y). The independent factors were represented by: (border price, domestic price, average per capita national income, the number of population, and the exchange rate), and time series data were relied upon to estimate the phenomenon in question, and the best results were reached through a standard model in the (linear) formula, and it was adopted based on its preference and superiority in terms of statistical and standard tests, The study ended with a number of conclusions and recommendations, including: Iraq suffers from a nutritional gap in wheat and rice crops, despite the presence of local production, which requires filling this gap by importing from abroad, while there is a surplus in the local production of dates, and this matter requires the country's attention to this. The comparative advantage of increasing its production and greatly activating the role of date exports .Accordingly, the study recommended paying attention to commercial cooperation between the agricultural sector and other sectors in order to narrow the food gap and reduce food dependency by increasing local production of wheat and rice crops, and activating the role of food industries for dates and canning them instead of importing dates manufactured from, and thus reducing imports and narrowing the food gap and exporting the surplus From domestic production to abroad ..